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‘Wealth’ Effect Without Wealth

We have had an ongoing discussion of the “wealth effect” here, spurred by my colleague Margie Fernandez, including some good outside discussion. Current orthodox thinking is that there is significant...

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Negative Quarters Are Rare, But Minus Three is Recession

In light of the enlightening of the full-scale of the first quarter’s disaster, it seems fitting to calculate the FOMC’s growth target with this new information. The current “central tendency” is...

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Yellen Says There Is No Economic Problem While Describing A Serious Economic...

When the difference between your rhetoric and your actions is wide, inconsistency is pretty much axiomatic. However, Janet Yellen’s press conference was much more than that. I understand it’s a lot to...

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Fed’s Own Models Contradict Their Rhetoric

The June FOMC meeting coincides with the quarterly update of the Federal Reserve’s modeled economic and policy projections. As usual, the economy forecasts have been cut for both 2016 and 2017. The...

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Inside and Outside, Market and Models Actually Agree On A Final Failing Grade...

It was another pretty embarrassing day for the Federal Reserve and its policymaking body the FOMC. The latter voted, as expected, to raise the federal funds corridor (or double floor, if you can’t get...

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‘Wealth’ Effect Without Wealth

We have had an ongoing discussion of the “wealth effect” here, spurred by my colleague Margie Fernandez, including some good outside discussion. Current orthodox thinking is that there is significant...

View Article

Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.

Negative Quarters Are Rare, But Minus Three is Recession

In light of the enlightening of the full-scale of the first quarter’s disaster, it seems fitting to calculate the FOMC’s growth target with this new information. The current “central tendency” is...

View Article

Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.

Yellen Says There Is No Economic Problem While Describing A Serious Economic...

When the difference between your rhetoric and your actions is wide, inconsistency is pretty much axiomatic. However, Janet Yellen’s press conference was much more than that. I understand it’s a lot to...

View Article


Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.

Fed’s Own Models Contradict Their Rhetoric

The June FOMC meeting coincides with the quarterly update of the Federal Reserve’s modeled economic and policy projections. As usual, the economy forecasts have been cut for both 2016 and 2017. The...

View Article


Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.

Inside and Outside, Market and Models Actually Agree On A Final Failing Grade...

It was another pretty embarrassing day for the Federal Reserve and its policymaking body the FOMC. The latter voted, as expected, to raise the federal funds corridor (or double floor, if you can’t get...

View Article

Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.

Slowdown In The Rebound; Stop Listening To Central Bankers

The primary reason for that first rate hike in a decade in December 2015 was ferbus figuring that full employment had probably been reached, certainly close to where the unemployment rate had fallen...

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FOMC Statement Makes A Statement Without Really Knowing It

Oh, the irony. Recall Janet Yellen’s plight, circa early 2015. Oil prices were “unexpectedly” crashing raining on her recovery-like parade. The Federal Reserve, Yellen as its Chairman, was about to...

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