‘Wealth’ Effect Without Wealth
We have had an ongoing discussion of the “wealth effect” here, spurred by my colleague Margie Fernandez, including some good outside discussion. Current orthodox thinking is that there is significant...
View ArticleNegative Quarters Are Rare, But Minus Three is Recession
In light of the enlightening of the full-scale of the first quarter’s disaster, it seems fitting to calculate the FOMC’s growth target with this new information. The current “central tendency” is...
View ArticleYellen Says There Is No Economic Problem While Describing A Serious Economic...
When the difference between your rhetoric and your actions is wide, inconsistency is pretty much axiomatic. However, Janet Yellen’s press conference was much more than that. I understand it’s a lot to...
View ArticleFed’s Own Models Contradict Their Rhetoric
The June FOMC meeting coincides with the quarterly update of the Federal Reserve’s modeled economic and policy projections. As usual, the economy forecasts have been cut for both 2016 and 2017. The...
View ArticleInside and Outside, Market and Models Actually Agree On A Final Failing Grade...
It was another pretty embarrassing day for the Federal Reserve and its policymaking body the FOMC. The latter voted, as expected, to raise the federal funds corridor (or double floor, if you can’t get...
View Article‘Wealth’ Effect Without Wealth
We have had an ongoing discussion of the “wealth effect” here, spurred by my colleague Margie Fernandez, including some good outside discussion. Current orthodox thinking is that there is significant...
View ArticleNegative Quarters Are Rare, But Minus Three is Recession
In light of the enlightening of the full-scale of the first quarter’s disaster, it seems fitting to calculate the FOMC’s growth target with this new information. The current “central tendency” is...
View ArticleYellen Says There Is No Economic Problem While Describing A Serious Economic...
When the difference between your rhetoric and your actions is wide, inconsistency is pretty much axiomatic. However, Janet Yellen’s press conference was much more than that. I understand it’s a lot to...
View ArticleFed’s Own Models Contradict Their Rhetoric
The June FOMC meeting coincides with the quarterly update of the Federal Reserve’s modeled economic and policy projections. As usual, the economy forecasts have been cut for both 2016 and 2017. The...
View ArticleInside and Outside, Market and Models Actually Agree On A Final Failing Grade...
It was another pretty embarrassing day for the Federal Reserve and its policymaking body the FOMC. The latter voted, as expected, to raise the federal funds corridor (or double floor, if you can’t get...
View ArticleSlowdown In The Rebound; Stop Listening To Central Bankers
The primary reason for that first rate hike in a decade in December 2015 was ferbus figuring that full employment had probably been reached, certainly close to where the unemployment rate had fallen...
View ArticleFOMC Statement Makes A Statement Without Really Knowing It
Oh, the irony. Recall Janet Yellen’s plight, circa early 2015. Oil prices were “unexpectedly” crashing raining on her recovery-like parade. The Federal Reserve, Yellen as its Chairman, was about to...
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